At the moment of writing these words, December silver futures trade near $52, after falling to $48.62 on Tuesday, their lowest level since October 2025.
Gold jumped overnight, after the Democrats won control of Congress, and silver rose even more.
This silver price forecast for November 2026 builds on my gold price forecast for November 2026, published on October 30. It starts with what my earlier silver calls got right, then looks at today's rebound and the gold-to-silver ratio, and it ends with my silver price prediction for November 2026.
What My Silver Calls Got Right
Silver's path this year has followed my free forecasts closely.
On January 20, in Will the Greenland Threat Push Silver to $120?, I wrote: "Silver moved higher once again, and it could be on its way to $120." Nine days later, on January 29, spot silver topped at $121.63. Truth be told, I’ve been featuring the $120 target years before, based on the Fibonacci-extension technique applied to the previous highs. I’ve been featuring the chart below for many months, when silver was trading below $30.
Then came the decline. On October 8, I wrote: "Silver's underperformance is the sector-wide decline showing up first where it shows up most, and the move below $50 remains the medium-term outlook." On October 30, silver fell below $50 for the first time since November 2025.
That day, in the gold price forecast for November, I wrote: "In my view, silver is likely to form an intermediate bottom in this area within the next two trading days, perhaps even today." The area was $48-$50. On Tuesday, the second of these two trading days, spot silver fell to $48.62, and today, it rebounded above $52. The table below sums up these calls.
The next question is what today's rebound means, and the context matters here.
Silver Leads the Election Rebound
Today's rebound came on election news, and silver is leading it.
The Democrats won control of the House and the Senate, and this was the expected outcome. On November 2, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket gave the Democrats about a 95 percent chance of winning the House and about 71 percent for the Senate, according to WION. Gold jumped overnight anyway, and silver rose even more, so the gold-to-silver ratio fell to about 78, from about 79 on Tuesday.
In my view, this is an emotional reaction to an expected result. When silver leads a rebound like this one, the rebound is usually corrective, not the start of a new rally, and Monday's silver-led rebound ended the next day. Despite today's rally, silver isn't even back to its previous 2026 lows, near $55.
The gold-to-silver ratio is the key to what comes next, so it deserves a closer look.
Why the Gold-to-Silver Ratio Matters
The ratio tells you how many ounces of silver buy one ounce of gold, and it moves in a pattern.
Silver is a much smaller market than gold, and it's partly an industrial metal, so it draws more speculative money. Late in a rally, investors chase silver, and the gold-to-silver ratio falls. In a decline, silver usually falls harder, and the ratio rises. The table below shows how this played out in the major declines of the past two decades.
The biggest jumps in the ratio came when stocks crashed. In 2008 and in 2020, investors sold what was liquid to raise cash, and the ratio soared to 84.7 and 124.1. This is how a liquidity crisis hits the precious metals. In 2013, stocks rallied, and silver still fell 30 percent from its April 12 breakdown close to its June 28 low, while the ratio rose from 57 to 63.
This year, the ratio rose from 46.2 in late January to 78.9 on Tuesday. In my view, it has further to rise, and when stocks slide, it might soar above 84. This brings me to the price levels.
Silver Price Prediction for November 2026
My silver price prediction for November 2026 builds on the gold outlook and the ratio.
In the gold price forecast for November, I wrote that gold's next target after $3,920 is about $3,500. With gold at about $3,500 and the gold-to-silver ratio in the 80-84 range, silver would be at about $42-$44. This is my silver price prediction for November 2026: in my view, the current rebound is likely to fade, and silver is likely to move toward $42-$44.
The final bottom might be much lower. Gold's decline this year resembles its decline in 2011-2013, and after the April 2013 breakdown, gold fell, corrected, and then fell again, to its June 28 low. If gold repeats these moves, it would end up in the low $3,000s. If stocks slide at the same time and the ratio soars above 84, as it did in 2008 and 2020, silver might fall to about $30.
The levels are one part of the picture. The other part is what would tell me that I'm wrong.
What Would Change My Silver Price Prediction
A sign that the precious metals are bottoming would change it.
In my view, the lasting bottom is likely to form while the USD Index is still rising, and the sign of it will be gold and silver reacting less and less to the dollar's strength. Silver and the miners leading gold higher and holding their gains into the close would be another sign. Today, silver is leading, but the USD Index is falling and the trigger was an expected election result, so in my view, this isn't the sign yet.
Where This Leaves Us
Silver topped near $120, fell below $50, and formed an intermediate bottom in the $48-$50 area within two trading days, as my forecasts said. Today's rebound came on an expected election result, and silver is leading it, which in my view makes it corrective. My silver price prediction for November 2026 is a decline toward $42-$44, with gold at about $3,500, and the final bottom might be closer to $30 if stocks slide.
Monday's silver-led rebound lasted one day. This one started with news that the markets had expected for weeks.
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Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA