Today, I want to talk about silver because it's one of the things that everyone expects to break higher.
However, this simply hasn't happened yet, and I see that many investors and traders are running out of patience. Well, normally, big moves and breakouts require patience. If you don't have it, then "weak hands" can be pushed out of the market.
It's very frustrating to see a strong bounce in silver from its 2020 low, rising from below $12 to a strong move towards $30, where a lot of people jumped in, thinking it's a good inflation hedge. Unfortunately, this scenario has not unfolded as expected. Silver continues to move sideways from its 2021 highs. This can actually be seen as a positive sign, as such movement often represents a correction within an uptrend.
I observe an ongoing triangle pattern, which resembles an A-B-C-D-E pattern, suggesting more upside potential once all the necessary subwaves are in place. However, this is not the case as of now. It appears that we might have to wait for a few more months, possibly even until 2024, before the market truly starts to break higher. A significant breakout point could be a weekly close above 26.20.
However, silver will not break higher on its own. We need a change in policy and a weaker USD. Currently, the USD is not declining as US yields keep rising. But if the FED stops its tightening cycle later in 2023 or next year, the cycles could change, potentially leading to a breakout in silver from its current 2/3-year range.
Grega
https://twitter.com/GregaHorvatFX
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