Oil prices continue to fluctuate after last week’s rally - will the uptrend continue?
Crude oil prices rose 4.30% on Tuesday, rebounding from a 3.7% pullback on Monday, and extending a volatile consolidation following last Friday’s rally. The sharp swings continue to be driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. This morning, WTI is up just 0.3% ahead of the key FOMC announcement later today at 2:00 p.m.
For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:
- President Trump warned that U.S. patience with Iran is running out, demanding "unconditional surrender" in a social media post. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei rejected this call, escalating tensions.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk point, with ING analysts noting that nearly one-third of global seaborne oil passes through it. A disruption could push oil prices to $120 per barrel.
- Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps around 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day. Increased conflict could significantly impact global supply.
- Markets are watching the U.S. Federal Reserve, expected to maintain rates at 4.25%-4.50%. However, heightened geopolitical risks and slowing growth may lead to an earlier rate cut.
- U.S. crude inventories dropped by 10.1 million barrels in the week ending June 13, according to API data. Official figures from the EIA are expected later Wednesday.
Conclusion
Crude oil continues its volatile swings following last Friday’s rally. While investors remain focused on the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, attention is likely to shift to today’s FOMC release.
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Crude oil prices remain volatile and sensitive to news, hovering near recent local highs.
- The ongoing tariff-related volatility, combined with economic data, is adding to market uncertainty.
The full version of today’s analysis - today’s Oil Trading Alert - is bigger than what you read above, and it includes the current Crude Oil futures contract position. I encourage you to subscribe and read the details today (with a single-time 7-day free trial). Oil Trading Alerts are also a part of our Diamond Package that includes Gold Trading Alerts and Stock Trading Alerts.
And if you’re not yet on our free mailing list, I strongly encourage you to join it - you’ll stay up-to-date with our free analyses that will still put you ahead of 99% of investors that don’t have access to this information. Join our free oil newsletter today.
Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
Recommended for You
- Tax-Optimized Legacy Planning: How Physical Gold IRAs Work in 2025 Learn how forward-thinking investors are protecting generational wealth through tax-advantaged precious metals strategies that function independently of market volatility.
- Volatility Breakout System: Paul's Proprietary Trading Approach Discover how this market-tested trading system has outperformed the S&P 500 by identifying key turning points and generating precise entry signals.